OVERNIGHT TREASURIES

•Front-end marginally bid in quiet trading overnight before ECB outcome
•Moderately light volume, 124k 10-year futures trade by 06:26 EST
•September 10s trade 134-12.5/134/04 overnight, 134-09 last
•Asian accounts lift belly and long-end, sell spread product in belly

MARKET BIAS

•The tactical bias is neutral heading into the ECB policy verdict risk event. Look for a range of 1.56% to 1.47% in 10s.
•The strategic bias looks to buy notable weakness, though may consider a short prior to the Refunding.
•The curve bias is flat, though favors steepeners into the Refunding.

TECHNICAL OVERVIEW

DATA

•07:30 Challenger Job Cuts (Jul) (prev 37.6k)
•08:30 Initial Claims (wk July 28) (mkt 370k, prev 353k)
•08:30 — Continuing Claims (wk July 21) (mkt 3.290 mln, prev 3.287 mln)
•08:30 SHRM/Rutgers LINE (Aug) (prev +2.0 mfg, -17.4 svcs)
•n/a ICSC Chain Store Sales (Jul) (prev +2.6%)
•10:00 Factory Orders (Jun) (mkt +0.5% m/m, prev +0.9% m/m)

EVENTS

•11:00 Fed outright Treasury coupon purchase (02/15/2036 – 05/15/2042) (e: $1.50 – $2.00 bln)

ISSUANCE

•11:00 Treasury announces 3- and 6-month bills (e: $33/29 bln)