Bonds little changed in mostly quiet trading before FOMC

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OVERNIGHT TREASURIES

•Bonds little changed in mostly quiet trading before FOMC
•Moderate volume, 159k 10-year futures trade by 06:30 EST
•Customer flows very mixed, Japanese and other overseas accounts lift front-end
•Better receiving from Japan/Asia across front-end
•Talk Japanese/Asian selling in the belly
•10s trade in a range of 1.633% and 1.616% overnight.
•USTs outperforming EGBs by 2.7bp in the 10yr maturity compared to the previous London close.

MARKET BIAS

•The tactical bias is as a neutral range trader ahead of the FOMC verdict to then likely to fade the FOMC market move anticipating the lack of a follow-through at this time.
•Look for a 1.71% to 1.57% range in 10s.
•The strategic bias is flat.
•The curve bias is flat, but favors flatteners on any notable correction.

TECHNICAL OVERVIEW

DATA

•00:01 AIA Architecture Billings Index (May)
•07:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Applications Index (wk Jun 15) (prev +12.8% w/w)

EVENTS

•09:00 FOMC meeting, day 2
•12:30 FOMC statement
•14:00 FOMC Summary of Economic Projections
•14:15 FOMC press conference

 

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